Alabama 1st Congressional District is wide open for new representation and Democrats have strong showing among voters

Republicans Byrne and Young lead the Republicans, but Democrats are knocking on the door!

U.S. Rep. Jo Bonner, R-Mobile, announced last month that, effective Aug. 15, he will resign from the congressional seat that he’s held since 2003, he wants to go and be with his sister at the University of Alabama in a new position she created just for him.

With his resignation from congress coming August 15, it is sure that Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley will call a special election to fill the seat being vacated by Jo Bonner.  Bonner, first elected in 2002, didn’t have a Democratic opponent in his last two elections in 2012 and 2010. Republican Mitt Romney captured 61 percent of the vote in the district against President Barack Obama in November.

This election is expected to be filled with candidates to fill this seat, and Republicans still believes that this is a conservative strong hold for South Alabama. Well I have to give my input on that, the 1^st Congressional district could be won by a Democrat if the right Democrat would run. Earlier this month Democrats agreed by saying this seat is winnable and willing to work to win it. A lot of work has to be done to win this seat and yes it can happen, voter turnout and messaging will be the key.

Major media outlets continue to drive the conversation and hype center around conservative stronghold on the 1^st Congressional District, and that it’s impossible for a Democrat to win. They send that message out every time they speak of the race or district, and they do not allow space for new opportunity or a fair voice from the Democratic views. What I am saying is if you say it over and over again, a person tends to believe just that. When polls are conducted, do pollsters conduct fair polls are do they poll a certain class of voters?  Many Democrats do not get an opportunity to participate in elections polls or surveys and especially African American or Hispanic voters, why - because that may change the dynamics in numbers and the news for the election.

With many candidates jumping into the race to succeed Rep. Jo Bonner many Republican candidates have already announced and while no Democrat has announced; Your Political Beacon has conducted a poll and survey on political candidate and matchup for the upcoming special election. Below are the results of the poll we conducted just this past weekend via phone.

We ask potential voters in the 1^st Congressional District, which party are they likely to vote for if the election was held today?

Democratic – 40%
Republican – 48%
Independent – 3%
Other – 0.05%
Not Sure – 8%

(Democrats fared well among respondents if a special election was held today, showing that this seat is vulnerable.)

We asked, what are the most important issues that you care about?

Economy – 16%
Jobs – 20%
Immigration – 12%
National Security – 18%
Taxes – 15%
Other – 19%

(There is no doubt that the voters of the 1^st Congressional district have jobs at the top of their agenda of issues that matter the most to them. 20% of the respondents said Jobs was the number one issue on their minds )

We asked about potential candidate matchup if the election was held today. We asked if the election was held today who would you support for the Republican nomination?

Former State Sen. Bradley Byrne –  20%
Businessman Dean Young – 23%
Rep. Randy Davis – 6%
Quin Hillyer – 3%
Other  - 48%  (All candidates that polled below two percent was included in other.)

We asked, if the election was held today who would you support for the Democratic nomination?

Former Mobile Mayor Mike Dow – 28%
Sen. Marc Keahey – 19%
Rep. Napoleon Bracy – 13%
U.S. Surgeon General Regina Benjamin – 8%
Not Sure – 14%
Other – 18%

We asked, if the election was held today between to the following potential nominees who would you support?   

Former State Sen. Bradley Byrne – 49%
Former Mayor Mike Dow – 46%
Other – 5%
Former State Sen. Bradley Byrne – 49%
Sen. Marc Keahey – 45%
Other – 6%

Former State Sen.  Bradley Byrne – 56%
Rep. Napoleon Bracy – 40%
Other – 4%

We asked the same question with a different possible Republican Nominee.

Businessman Dean Young – 44%
Former Mayor Mike Dow – 40%
Not Sure – 8%
Other – 8%

Businessman Dean Young – 42%
Sen. Marc Keahey – 40%
Not Sure - 6
Other – 12%

Businessman Dean Young – 49%
Rep. Napoleon Bracy – 38%
Not Sure – 3%
Other – 10%

We asked all respondents in the survey to identify their race.

Black – 28%
Hispanic – 3%
White – 66%
Other – 3%

We asked all respondents in the survey to identify their party affiliation.

Democratic – 30%
Republican – 41%
Independent – 7%
No Answer – 17%
Other – 5%

In these surveys we polled potential registered voters in the 1^st Congressional District based on poll percentages. The possible candidates and nominees with the highest polls results were included in this report. Candidates who did not have a greater showing of 3% was not included but was listed in other. We polled a total of 1,119 potential voters via phone survey.  

Any potential listed possible Democrat that enters the race shows a favorable chance of picking up this seat come a special election.  Former Mobile Mayor Mike Dow if he runs as a Democrat has the best chances of knocking off a Republican nominee, followed by State Sen. Marc Keahey of Grove Hill, Alabama and Rep. Napoleon Bracy. Business woman Lucy Buffett announced that she is not interested in running and will not be a candidate.
Among Republicans it seems that Bradley Byrne and Dean Young will be battling it out for the Republican nomination if no other well-known candidate enters their primary race for the soon to be open seat.

Many voters are concerned about the way business is being handled in Washington, and many other concerned about how Republicans are handling the people’s business. People realize that they come first before special interest and its shows in this recent poll conducted by the Political Beacon.