Alabama 1st congressional candidates money race off to a good start; Maybe?

Have the big elephant belly dried up?

There are so many Republican candidates running for the 1^st congressional seat in Alabama, and it’s hard to keep up with who is really running.

Several Republican candidates have filed with the FEC to make a run for the soon to be vacant seat in South Alabama. The congressional seat is being vacated by Republican Congressman Jo Bonner, who is resigning in August to take a job in Tuscaloosa at the University of Alabama where his sister is in charge.  Many of the candidates have great ties to the Republican establishment and party. Not sure which candidate is the true Tea Party favorite, if any is? But this race is getting crowded even the more and the money is beginning to come in.

The early campaign fundraising totals is in and some may say that it’s off to a fast start and some may say it’s too early. Well I have a different view of all that, I say the Republican fundraising is off to a slow start; and I wonder why?

In early campaign finance reports, Republican Dean Young leads the Republican candidates and Bradley Byrne follows. Dean Young's brought in $141,943 for his campaign so far, which gave him the lead out of the five candidates who submitted campaign finance reports to the Federal Election Commission.  However, Young did not raise a total of $141,943, a $129,500 of that report he loaned himself and not from fundraising. Dean Young only raised a total of $12,443 for his congressional campaign.  This Orange Beach businessman maybe leading in campaign finance reports, but he is not leading in getting money from his republican supporters.

Second to Dean Young is Republican Bradley Byrne; Byrne led the field in terms of raising money from outside contributions with a total of $75,882. Following Byrne is Quin Hillyer bring in $62,779.00 and Chad Fincher with a showing of $45,890, which Fincher also loaned himself $10,000.00. Jessica James a former State School Board Candidate says he brought in $2,750.00. The other Republican candidates and independents have not filed a report to show they have reached the threshold required to report finances. Candidates are not required to register with the FEC until they receive contributions or expenditures in excess of $5,000.

It is clear that all the Republican candidates have not raised much money, and could that be because donors and friends are waiting to see who jumps in the race when qualifying ends and the real race is one. Or maybe donors and friends are not ready to give to a Republican candidate. Many are boosting the fundraising for the Republicans, but it’s not a boosting moment because it’s not all that great at the moment. With such a negative image on the Republicans and Washington, voters, donors and friends maybe looking for something different, such as a new candidate or a Democrat to run and support.

When the next campaign report comes out we should be able to get a better look on the fundraising for this race, but as of today the numbers are low and questionable on where is the support and donors for the Republicans. Have the elephant belly dried up?

A special will soon be set once the seat become vacant by Rep. Jo Bonner a Republican from Mobile. Bonner has announced that he will resign on or about August 15th. Once he resigns Gov. Robert Bentley will call a special election to fill the seat.

Alabama 1st Congressional District is wide open for new representation and Democrats have strong showing among voters

Republicans Byrne and Young lead the Republicans, but Democrats are knocking on the door!

U.S. Rep. Jo Bonner, R-Mobile, announced last month that, effective Aug. 15, he will resign from the congressional seat that he’s held since 2003, he wants to go and be with his sister at the University of Alabama in a new position she created just for him.

With his resignation from congress coming August 15, it is sure that Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley will call a special election to fill the seat being vacated by Jo Bonner.  Bonner, first elected in 2002, didn’t have a Democratic opponent in his last two elections in 2012 and 2010. Republican Mitt Romney captured 61 percent of the vote in the district against President Barack Obama in November.

This election is expected to be filled with candidates to fill this seat, and Republicans still believes that this is a conservative strong hold for South Alabama. Well I have to give my input on that, the 1^st Congressional district could be won by a Democrat if the right Democrat would run. Earlier this month Democrats agreed by saying this seat is winnable and willing to work to win it. A lot of work has to be done to win this seat and yes it can happen, voter turnout and messaging will be the key.

Major media outlets continue to drive the conversation and hype center around conservative stronghold on the 1^st Congressional District, and that it’s impossible for a Democrat to win. They send that message out every time they speak of the race or district, and they do not allow space for new opportunity or a fair voice from the Democratic views. What I am saying is if you say it over and over again, a person tends to believe just that. When polls are conducted, do pollsters conduct fair polls are do they poll a certain class of voters?  Many Democrats do not get an opportunity to participate in elections polls or surveys and especially African American or Hispanic voters, why - because that may change the dynamics in numbers and the news for the election.

With many candidates jumping into the race to succeed Rep. Jo Bonner many Republican candidates have already announced and while no Democrat has announced; Your Political Beacon has conducted a poll and survey on political candidate and matchup for the upcoming special election. Below are the results of the poll we conducted just this past weekend via phone.

We ask potential voters in the 1^st Congressional District, which party are they likely to vote for if the election was held today?

Democratic – 40%
Republican – 48%
Independent – 3%
Other – 0.05%
Not Sure – 8%

(Democrats fared well among respondents if a special election was held today, showing that this seat is vulnerable.)

We asked, what are the most important issues that you care about?

Economy – 16%
Jobs – 20%
Immigration – 12%
National Security – 18%
Taxes – 15%
Other – 19%

(There is no doubt that the voters of the 1^st Congressional district have jobs at the top of their agenda of issues that matter the most to them. 20% of the respondents said Jobs was the number one issue on their minds )

We asked about potential candidate matchup if the election was held today. We asked if the election was held today who would you support for the Republican nomination?

Former State Sen. Bradley Byrne –  20%
Businessman Dean Young – 23%
Rep. Randy Davis – 6%
Quin Hillyer – 3%
Other  - 48%  (All candidates that polled below two percent was included in other.)

We asked, if the election was held today who would you support for the Democratic nomination?

Former Mobile Mayor Mike Dow – 28%
Sen. Marc Keahey – 19%
Rep. Napoleon Bracy – 13%
U.S. Surgeon General Regina Benjamin – 8%
Not Sure – 14%
Other – 18%

We asked, if the election was held today between to the following potential nominees who would you support?   

Former State Sen. Bradley Byrne – 49%
Former Mayor Mike Dow – 46%
Other – 5%
Former State Sen. Bradley Byrne – 49%
Sen. Marc Keahey – 45%
Other – 6%

Former State Sen.  Bradley Byrne – 56%
Rep. Napoleon Bracy – 40%
Other – 4%

We asked the same question with a different possible Republican Nominee.

Businessman Dean Young – 44%
Former Mayor Mike Dow – 40%
Not Sure – 8%
Other – 8%

Businessman Dean Young – 42%
Sen. Marc Keahey – 40%
Not Sure - 6
Other – 12%

Businessman Dean Young – 49%
Rep. Napoleon Bracy – 38%
Not Sure – 3%
Other – 10%

We asked all respondents in the survey to identify their race.

Black – 28%
Hispanic – 3%
White – 66%
Other – 3%

We asked all respondents in the survey to identify their party affiliation.

Democratic – 30%
Republican – 41%
Independent – 7%
No Answer – 17%
Other – 5%

In these surveys we polled potential registered voters in the 1^st Congressional District based on poll percentages. The possible candidates and nominees with the highest polls results were included in this report. Candidates who did not have a greater showing of 3% was not included but was listed in other. We polled a total of 1,119 potential voters via phone survey.  

Any potential listed possible Democrat that enters the race shows a favorable chance of picking up this seat come a special election.  Former Mobile Mayor Mike Dow if he runs as a Democrat has the best chances of knocking off a Republican nominee, followed by State Sen. Marc Keahey of Grove Hill, Alabama and Rep. Napoleon Bracy. Business woman Lucy Buffett announced that she is not interested in running and will not be a candidate.
Among Republicans it seems that Bradley Byrne and Dean Young will be battling it out for the Republican nomination if no other well-known candidate enters their primary race for the soon to be open seat.

Many voters are concerned about the way business is being handled in Washington, and many other concerned about how Republicans are handling the people’s business. People realize that they come first before special interest and its shows in this recent poll conducted by the Political Beacon.  

Congressman Bonner announces his resignation from congress

U.S. Rep. Jo Bonner, a Republican from Mobile, announced today that he will resign from Congress later this summer and take a job at the University of Alabama.

Congressman Bonner is expected to resign his seat on our nation capitol around August 15, 2013 and begin his new career at Alabama on August 16, 2013. Bonner who is 53, is the 5^th congressman to represent Alabama's 1st Congressional District.

Rep. Jo Bonner - R - Mobile

The only known reason for Bonner to resign from congress at this point is to accept a job offered by his sister the new president of Alabama. However Jo Bonner was expecting to face another challenge next year in the Republican primary for his seat that make been a hotly contested race. Bonner has lost some support among local conservatives and that could have been building against him and put his campaign into jeopardy. 

Luckily his sister gain the big time job at the University of Alabama as President, and offered her brother an opportunity to avoid such an expensive and hotly contest congressional race in 2014.

Many names are beginning to float around as possible candidates to run for the soon to be vacant congressional seat. More than likely the phones hot tonight and I am sure that the Republican ticket will be full and a run-off will be held to determine a republican nominee. On the Democratic side with the State Democratic Party in shambles is unknown if any Democrat will enter into this race. I believe a Democrat has a chance in this seat with a special election.

While conservatives have shown their true spirit and motives over the past several years, people are truly looking for better and change. If the right Democrat enters the race there is a possibility that a Democrat can carry this seat for the first time in decades. A moderate Democrat will have to be the choice and with established name recognition and without a primary.

Jo Bonner is another Republican to resign from elected office in the middle of a term, which plainly shows real cowardly leadership and representation from an elected official.